+$250 flat soy puts

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
9/25/2018 9:48	SINGLE	BUY	1	TO CLOSE	/ZSX8 1/50 NOV 18	/OZSX8	800	PUT	3	3	LMT

The entry was posted live here and @tfo_medved.

-$6,280 #soybean

according to the plan. The lesson here is - don't increase the size of a losing position.

Soybean Naked Put

New Entry

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
8/24/2018 9:38	SINGLE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	/ZSX8 1/50 NOV 18	/OZSX8	800	PUT	8.125	8.125	LMT

My old position will be closed later today ; the expected loss is ~ $6,000.

#soybean : bought Calls

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
7/16/2018 9:53	SINGLE	BUY	2	TO OPEN	/ZSU8 1/50 SEP 18	/OZSU8	900	CALL	9.5	9.5	LMT

There are rumors that Trump's administration manipulates commodity prices

Financial Times - "US cuts forecast for soybean exports to China". The forecast is that when tariff war would force to negotiate a compromise  “ ... you’re going to see a spike in soybean prices, not just a rise”. There are tin foil hat rumors that tariff wars are used by Trump's administration to manipulate commodity prices in favor of people running ICE exchange.

#soybean : trade update

 /ZSU8 soybean futures came close to the protective put @800.  Rolling into /ZSX8 gives some positive theta and keeps the trade alive; the rolling loss is 65 points per contract. As it was explained in the "Soybean Crash" post, the recovery of soybean price is a reasonable assumption here.

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
7/13/2018 11:34	SINGLE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	/ZSX8 1/50 NOV 18	/OZSX8	900	CALL	19.25	19.25	LMT
7/13/2018 11:34	FUTURE	BUY	2	TO OPEN	/ZSX8	18-Nov		FUTURE	835.5	835.5	LMT
7/13/2018 11:33	SINGLE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	/ZSX8 1/50 NOV 18	/OZSX8	900	CALL	19.25	19.25	LMT
7/13/2018 11:20	SINGLE	SELL	-2	TO CLOSE	/ZSU8 1/50 SEP 18	/OZSU8	800	PUT	14.375	14.375	LMT
7/13/2018 11:20	FUTURE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	/ZSU8	18-Sep		FUTURE	826	826	LMT
7/13/2018 11:20	FUTURE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	/ZSU8	18-Sep		FUTURE	826	826	LMT

The previous trades are posted here.

#Soybean Crash

The USA soybean futures are down about -15% off their recent highs. I have sold 2 /ZSU8 910 Puts for about $4 and as of Friday close, the price was $868.5.  This big loss doesn't scare me.   
Main factors causing the crash are weather outlook and demand from China. At the same time, the Brazilian soybeans for loading in September are at a premium of about $2 per bushel to futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. So far this is the result of trade wars ignited by the president Trump. However, soybean watchers believe that if China implements tariffs, the European Union will import more beans from the USA than from Brazil.  The common wisdom is that the discounted price in the U.S. will cause that to happen. As for the weather impact, one can say that probably the best weather scenario for soybean farms is already priced in.  

For the above explained reasons I have neutral to long bias and will keep 2 /ZS futures contracts in the portfolio while selling Calls.

#soybean #ZS_F : protective puts

Soybean is under tremendous pressure. Let us buy some protection. The pain phase is in.

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
6/15/2018 10:41	SINGLE	BUY	1	TO OPEN	/ZSU8 1/50 SEP 18	/OZSU8	800	PUT	1.25	1.25	LMT
6/15/2018 10:41	SINGLE	BUY	1	TO OPEN	/ZSU8 1/50 SEP 18	/OZSU8	800	PUT	1.25	1.25	LMT

#soybean $ZS_F : scaled in #naked #puts

Negative news for US farmers :
1.  China wants to produce more soybean.
2. Argentina's soybean crop is set to increase by 44% in 2018/2019. 

  Price keeps dropping. Contrarians have to endure more pain. Today I've added to the position. This is -No Pain No Gain- trade now.

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
6/11/2018 12:13	SINGLE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	/ZSU8 1/50 SEP 18	/OZSU8	910	PUT	7	7	LMT

#soybean $ZS_F : naked put reentry

Whenever Donald Trump tweets the price of soybean goes down. After it, the price bounces back.  Let us use this opportunity to reload our winning naked puts trade. 

The cone shows one standard deviation move. 

910 Put 80 DTE (days to expiration); Buying power effect: ~ $600; Max profit: $140.

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
6/5/2018 12:12	SINGLE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	/ZSU8 1/50 SEP 18	/OZSU8	910	PUT	2.875	2.875	LMT

#soybean : take $100 profit

 The trade idea was based on a commonsensical approach to  Sino-American Trade War of 2018.

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
5/25/2018 12:52	SINGLE	BUY	1	TO CLOSE	/ZSQ8 1/50 AUG 18	/OZSQ8	920	PUT	1.25	1.25	LMT

The trades are posted live @tfo_medved.

#soybean #ZS_F naked put : new entry &graphical explanation

Soybean is the first casualty in Sino-American Trade War of 2018. This is a trade aimed to profit from an inevitable arrival of Sino-American Trade Peace.

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
5/11/2018 11:44	SINGLE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	/ZSQ8 1/50 AUG 18	/OZSQ8	920	PUT	3.5	3.5	LMT

Bell shape shows 1 SD move. 

920 Put 77 DTE (days to expiration)

Buying power effect : ~ $600

Max profit : $150

#soybean nikked put

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
12/19/2017 13:59	SINGLE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	/ZSH8 1/50 MAR 18	/OZSH8	890	PUT	1.5	1.5	LMT

+$50 /ZSF8 soybean naked 880Put

today /ZSF8 is @997;  880Put expires worthless.

long #soybean

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
9/28/2017 11:00	SINGLE	SELL	-1	TO OPEN	/ZSF8 1/50 DEC 17	/OZSZ7	880	PUT	1.25	1.25	LMT

+$160 flat #soybean

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
9/19/2017 10:17	SINGLE	BUY	1	TO CLOSE	/ZSX7 1/50 NOV 17	/OZSX7	870	PUT	0.625	0.625	LMT

-$290 flat #corn futures calendar

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
9/19/2017 11:05	FUT CALENDAR	SELL	-2	TO CLOSE	/ZCZ7	17-Dec		FUTURE	347.75	-27.75	LMT
		BUY	2	TO CLOSE	/ZCN8	18-Jul		FUTURE	375.5	DEBIT

+$100 #soybean scaled out

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
9/6/2017 9:38	SINGLE	BUY	1	TO CLOSE	/ZSX7 1/50 OCT 17	/OZSV7	900	PUT	0.875	0.875	LMT

martingale #corn futures calendar

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
8/25/2017 13:34	FUT CALENDAR	BUY	1	TO OPEN	/ZCZ7	17-Dec		FUTURE	353.5	-26.25	LMT
		SELL	-1	TO OPEN	/ZCN8	18-Jul		FUTURE	379.75	CREDIT

#corn futures calendar

Exec Time	Spread	Side	Qty	Pos Effect	Symbol	Exp	Strike	Type	Price	Net Price	Order Type
8/18/2017 11:02	FUT CALENDAR	BUY	1	TO OPEN	/ZCZ7	17-Dec		FUTURE	363.75	-24	LMT
		SELL	-1	TO OPEN	/ZCN8	18-Jul		FUTURE	387.75	CREDIT